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luni, 27 februarie 2012

Ce mai poti sa spui...

... dupa ce ai citit aceste articole din The New York Times, scrise de Paul Krugman, laureat la Premiului Nobel pentru economie in anul 2008, pe care, desigur, le recomand a fi citite integral, in original, si cu atentie:
si
Voi cita o fraza din cel de-al doilea articol citat, care m-a pus pe ganduri... Iata ce spune Dl. Krugman:
"The infuriating thing about this tragedy is that it was completely unnecessary. Half a century ago, any economist — or for that matter any undergraduate who had read Paul Samuelson’s textbook “Economics” — could have told you that austerity in the face of depression was a very bad idea. But policy makers, pundits and, I’m sorry to say, many economists decided, largely for political reasons, to forget what they used to know. And millions of workers are paying the price for their willful amnesia." (subl.mea)
Si cred ca trebuie citat si din primul articol, iata :
"Last week the European Commission confirmed what everyone suspected: the economies it surveys are shrinking, not growing. It’s not an official recession yet, but the only real question is how deep the downturn will be. 
And this downturn is hitting nations that have never recovered from the last recession. For all America’s troubles, its gross domestic product has finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak; Europe’s has not. And some nations are suffering Great Depression-level pain: Greece and Ireland have had double-digit declines in output, Spain has 23 percent unemployment, Britain’s slump has now gone on longer than its slump in the 1930s.
Worse yet, European leaders — and quite a few influential players here — are still wedded to the economic doctrine responsible for this disaster." (subl. mea)
Practic aceasta "solutie" - austeritatea a facut mai mult rau decat bine, a agravat criza economica cu care se confrunta la ora actuala Europa si a provocat prelungirea acestei stari de recesiune. Din motive ideologice si politice. De observat ca Dl. Krugman arata ca "aceasta tragedie era complet nenecesara". Iar cei care platesc pentru ceea ce au facut politicienii, "spiritele ascutite", anumiti economisti sunt oamenii obisnuiti, cei ce muncesc (workers, spune Dl. Krugman), care duc tot greul pentru ceva ce nu a fost niciodata necesar!! Milioane de oameni. Observati ca spune la modul foarte clar: "doctrina economica responsabila pentru acest dezastru". Si, bineinteles, oameni responsabili pentru punerea in practica a acestei doctrine, cauzatoare a tragediei economice actuale... Iar acestia sunt liderii europeni actuali. Aratam aici parerea unui alt mare economist, laureat al Premiului Nobel, Dl. Joseph Stiglitz... 

Intrebarea logica care se impune este: de ce nu se schimba actuala politica economica, bazata pe austeritate, ce se duce in Europa? Care sa fie motivele? Daca tot e proasta aceasta politica, si realitatea confirma, si mai este si criticata de somitati in domeniul economic, de ce nu se schimba? Ciudat, nu? Este de neinteles aceasta perseverenta diabolica de a continua pe o linie gresita, ce nu poate decat sa agraveze criza economica actuala si, drept consecinta, sa sporeasca si sa prelungeasca suferintele a milioane de oameni. Foarte tardiv, dupa parerea mea, UE a recunoscut ca "reteta" in privinta Greciei este gresita... Iar cu retete gresite unde o sa ajungem? Evident ca la o situatie mai proasta. Stateam si ma gandeam ca daca Romania va adera la Tratatul de guvernanta fiscala, si daca si acest tratat este o reteta gresita atunci si situatia din Romania, din punct de vedere economic, se va putea agrava. Aceasta este si asa marcata de masurile dure de austeritate impuse de guvern, si care au avut ca efect o scadere drastica a consumului, inrautatind-o si provocand mari nemultumiri sociale. Dar foarte periculos pentru starea economica actuala a tarii imi pare a fi inrautatirea climatului economic european, datorat unor politici proaste si retete gresite... Observati ca Paul Krugman spune, reiau:
"It’s not an official recession yet, but the only real question is how deep the downturn will be."  
Deci contractia economica in Europa este o realitate. Problema reala este cat de puternica va fi aceasta contractie! Oficial, nu e in recesiune, dar Comisia Europeana a confirmat contractia economica. Se pare ca probleme mari sunt in Marea Britanie (dar si in Italia), a carei situatie Krugman o descrie in felul urmator:
"Britain is doing worse this time than it did during the Great Depression. Four years into the Depression, British G.D.P. had regained its previous peak; four years after the Great Recession began, Britain is nowhere close to regaining its lost ground." 
Iata ce spune si despre Italia si Spania:
"Nor is Britain unique. Italy is also doing worse than it did in the 1930s — and with Spain clearly headed for a double-dip recession, that makes three of Europe’s big five economies members of the worse-than club. Yes, there are some caveats and complications. But this nonetheless represents a stunning failure of policy.
And it’s a failure, in particular, of the austerity doctrine that has dominated elite policy discussion both in Europe and, to a large extent, in the United States for the past two years." (subl.mea)
Cititi, va rog, si articolul despre Italia. O sa vedeti niste grafice interesante acolo... E de luat aminte la proiectiile pe 2012 si 2013 ale PIB-ului real din cele doua tari (Marea Britanie si Italia), fata de ceea ce s-a intamplat in 1934 si 1935... PIB-ul real e exprimat ca procent din varful pre-criza in ambele cazuri, anul zero fiind 1929 sau 2007. Va rog sa va uitati. Iata ce spune in final Paul Krugman:
"With two of Europe’s big four economies doing worse than they did in the Great Depression, at least in terms of GDP — and that’s three of five if you count Spain — do you think the austerity advocates might consider that maybe, possibly, they’re on the wrong track?" (subl. mea)

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